According to data released by the China State Shipbuilding Association a few days ago, in the first three quarters, my country’s shipbuilding industry continued to achieve substantial growth in shipbuilding completions and new orders, major economic indicators maintained double-digit growth, and overall economic performance was sound. However, changes in the RMB exchange rate have a significant impact on the shipping industry, and ship prices have declined significantly. In addition, due to the weak foundation of the shipbuilding market’s recovery, the risks faced by the shipbuilding industry have not been eliminated.
A Data holding orders continue to rise, and the growth rate of various indicators continues to decline
In the first nine months, the nation’s shipbuilding completed 45.82 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 65.0%. The number of new ship orders received was 50.71 million dwt, which was three times the number of new orders received in the same period last year.
In September, driven by very large tankers (VLCC) and Panamax bulk carriers, the number of new ship orders received globally rose sharply. my country’s shipbuilding companies still performed outstandingly, especially in terms of undertaking container ships. In September, Shanghai Shipyard Shipping Co., Ltd. undertook 8 3800TEU (standard container) container ships, and Jiangsu Yangzijiang Shipyard Co., Ltd. undertook two 2500TEU container ships, continuing to change the single structure of bulk carriers in my country’s hand-held orders.
As the number of new ship orders received in September continued to exceed the volume of shipbuilding completed that month, my country’s momentum of holding ship orders from the end of April continued to rise. As of the end of September, my country’s hand-held ship orders reached 194.74 million dwt, an increase of 3.5% over the end of 2009, and an increase of 1.2% over the same period of the previous year.
From January to September, a total of 40 ship orders with 749,000 dwt were cancelled across the country, accounting for about 0.38% of the total number of orders for ships in hand at the end of September. There was no order cancellation for the key monitoring shipping companies in September.
Among various economic indicators, the total industrial output value continued to grow, but the growth rate dropped significantly. In the first nine months, the total industrial output value of 2,054 shipbuilding enterprises above designated size was 486 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.2% and a decrease of 8.3 percentage points. Among them, the shipbuilding industry was 370.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.6%, an increase of 14.1 percentage points; the ship supporting industry was 55.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.3%, and the increase rate was down 16.2 percentage points; the ship repair and shipbreaking industry was 55.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.2%. %, an increase of 20.4 percentage points.
The growth rate of ship exports also continued to decline. From January to September, shipbuilding companies completed 37.71 million dwt of export ships, accounting for 82.3% of the total completed shipbuilding; new orders for export ships were 38.84 million dwt, accounting for 76.6% of the total number of new orders; as of the end of September, holding Export ship orders were 17.01 million dwt, accounting for 87.3% of the total hand-held orders. Shipbuilding enterprises above designated size completed export delivery value of 212.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, and the growth rate dropped by two percentage points. Among them, the shipbuilding industry was 178.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, and the growth rate was down 9.5 percentage points; the ship supporting industry was 7.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11%, and the growth rate was down 20.7 percentage points; the ship repairing and shipbreaking industry was 24.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase 10.5%, an increase of 25%.
In the first eight months, by controlling fixed asset investment, centralized procurement of materials, strengthening centralized management of funds, broadening financing channels, and focusing on cost reduction and efficiency enhancement, shipbuilding companies maintained growth in their main business income and total profits. The increase in total profits realized by the whole industry was 6.6 percentage points higher than the increase in revenue from main operations.
From January to August, the main business income of shipbuilding enterprises above designated size was 360 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.1%, and a decrease of 10.5 percentage points from the same period last year. Among them, the shipbuilding industry was 267.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%, and the growth rate decreased by 20.2%; the ship accessory product manufacturing industry was 44.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.9%, and the growth rate decreased by 13.7%; the ship repairing and shipbreaking industry was 44.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase 24.4%, an increase of 25.2%.
The total profit of shipbuilding enterprises above designated size was 27.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.7%, an increase of 38.2 percentage points. Among them: shipbuilding was 22.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.7%, an increase of 38.3%; ship ancillary product manufacturing was 2.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%, and the growth rate was down 17.2%; ship repairing and shipbreaking industry was 2.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase It fell by 16.4%, and the rate of decline narrowed by 30.1 percentage points.
B. Analysis of the decline in ship prices
Experts said that from the data of the first three quarters, the ship market’s performance was significantly better than expected. Nevertheless, a notable feature is that since last year, ship prices have fallen severely. Ship prices have rebounded this year, but they are still not good. The current price of new ships has dropped by 30% to 40% from the peak in history in 2008, and individual ship types have even exceeded 40%. In addition, the sharp drop in ship prices and the sharp drop in current investment costs have led ship owners to increase their order-building efforts. However, it must be noted that most orders this year did not come from real endogenous market demand, but from non-mainstream shipowners and speculative capital’s “bottom-hunting” operations.
While ship prices have fallen, shipbuilding costs have risen further. Experts told reporters that labor costs, raw material costs, capital costs due to monetary tightening, rising interest rates, and management costs, coupled with other unpredictable factors, are expected to rise in the next few years, and the decline in shipping companies’ profits has become an indisputable fact. .
Changes in the RMB exchange rate have obvious effects
The China State Shipbuilding Association stated that at present, changes in the RMB exchange rate have and will continue to have a significant impact on the industry.
Compared with other industries, the impact of RMB appreciation on the shipbuilding industry is more prominent and serious. It is estimated that for every 1% appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, the revenue of shipbuilding companies from holding orders will decrease by approximately RMB 4 billion. Since my country restarted the reform of the exchange rate formation mechanism on June 19 this year, the renminbi has appreciated by more than 2% against the U.S. dollar, causing the shipping industry to reduce revenue by nearly 10 billion yuan. If the appreciation continues, the loss will be even greater.
Since the outbreak of the financial crisis, ship prices have generally fallen by 20% to 30%, and some ships have even dropped by 40%. The Shipping Association stated that the appreciation of the renminbi will make my country’s shipping industry worse. Beginning in 2013, it is possible to face industry-wide losses. At the same time, the appreciation of the renminbi will increase the cost of my country’s shipbuilding. In the international market price competition determined by the overall supply and demand relationship, it will severely weaken the price competitive advantage of my country’s ship products and widen the international competitiveness gap with advanced shipbuilding countries. In addition, the appreciation of the renminbi is conducive to improving the competitiveness of foreign marine supporting enterprises. In order to reduce costs, shipyards are more optimistic about imported equipment, and the production environment of my country’s marine supporting enterprises will be even worse.
Unbalanced ship structure
The problem of unbalanced structure of receiving orders still cannot be ignored. At present, many shipbuilding companies rely too much on the bulk carrier market, which has also led to the overall overcapacity of the shipbuilding industry, and the high-end production capacity is still insufficient due to the unbalanced ship structure. Experts say that in the future, the bulk carrier that has always been dominant may no longer be the mainstream. At present, the global bulk carrier shipping and shipbuilding market has both surpluses; with the growth of world refining capacity and changes in layout, global product oil tankers, especially The demand for large-scale product oil tankers is relatively active; at the same time, the next step in the development of the container ship market is also optimistic. At present, the newbuilding market for container ships has become more active.
If the turnover of the whole year of 2010 exceeds 100 million dwt, based on the current macroeconomic situation and the supply-demand relationship of the shipping market, the probability of new ship turnover for the whole year of 2011 achieving further growth on the basis of this year is low.
C. It is predicted that there will be no major changes in the market in the fourth quarter, focusing on market segments or turning points
Regarding the industry trend in the fourth quarter, most experts believe that according to the current shipping market operation trend, the market trend in the fourth quarter of this year will not change significantly, and the market will still maintain an average monthly new order of 8 million to 10 million. Ton level. The total global new orders for the whole year will exceed 100 million dwt.
From the perspective of ship demand, the bulk carrier market will gradually weaken, the oil tanker market will gradually become the backbone, and the container ship market will become more active.
In September, the Clarksons New Ship Price Index was reported at 141 points, the same as the previous month, and an increase of 5 points from the lowest value in January 2010. Judging from the trend of ship price levels, the prices of new ships will basically stabilize in the next three months, the prices of oil tankers and container ships may rebound slightly, and the prices of individual bulk carriers may fall slightly.
It is unlikely that the volume of new ships will continue to grow next year. Statistics show that from the changing trend of new ship transactions, demand has always been fluctuating, and the volume of new ship transactions has rarely been continuously declining or rising for several consecutive years. Experts said that if the turnover in 2010 exceeds 100 million dwt, based on the current macroeconomic situation and the supply and demand relationship in the shipping market, the probability that the turnover of new ships in 2011 will increase again on the basis of this year is low. This is because, on the one hand, the order demand in 2010 exceeded expectations, but most of the order demand came from market exogenous demand rather than real internal demand; on the other hand, the 2010 order was an overdraft of the demand in 2011 to a certain extent; in addition, Financing costs will not continue to linger at a low level. The demand for orders created by factors such as low ship prices, low financing costs, the trend of homogenization of the shipowner’s business structure, and speculative demand is not stable.
From the development trend of market segments in 2011, the diversification of market demand is more obvious, and the proportion of bulk carrier orders will drop significantly; the oil tanker market will continue to develop in 2010; the container ship market will become more active, and the overall Market support is stronger; the special ship market (PCC, LPG ship, LNG ship, etc.) may improve further. It needs to be pointed out that the large and ultra-large container ship market will also be active in advance, and the large-scale container ship will once again become a hot spot in the industry.
For enterprises, experts suggest that shipping companies should adjust their product structure in a timely manner according to the development of the market, and increase the research and development of other ship types, especially oil tankers and container ships. Once the market is active, they will be able to take orders.
In addition, as low-cost advantages are becoming more and more unsustainable, accelerated transformation has become an urgent issue facing shipbuilding companies. Experts said that shipbuilding companies must take advantage of the market space brought by low-cost advantages to improve their technical level as soon as possible, carry out research and development of key technologies for green and environmentally friendly ship types, and design and develop ship types that conform to the international mainstream in order to enhance their international competitiveness.
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