High growth is difficult to sustain negative growth

Judging from the situation in the first seven months of construction machinery in 2011, the industry has ended its momentum of high growth.

Although in terms of the growth rate of output value, the construction machinery industry still maintains a relatively high level in the machinery manufacturing industry, the growth rate of this industry has been greatly reduced compared with the rapid growth in 2010. At the same time, the sales of several major products of construction machinery have turned from growth to decline, and the decline in individual products is still considerable.

Production and sales have entered a turning point from April

Judging from the monthly output value of the construction machinery industry in 2011, it reached its peak this year in April. According to data from the China Machinery Industry Federation, the output value of the construction machinery industry from January to June was 41.922 billion yuan, 36.428 billion yuan, 59.227 billion yuan, 64.873 billion yuan, 57.398 billion yuan, and 52.717 billion yuan. From this set of data, it can be clearly seen that starting from April, the monthly output value of the construction machinery industry has begun to decline month by month, with monthly declines of 11% and 8% respectively.

From the statistical data of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, it also reflects the same trend. However, the entire decline has been advanced by one month, starting in March. The operating income of the key contact enterprise groups of China Construction Machinery Industry Association from March to June 2011 were 49.2 billion yuan, 46.1 billion yuan, 37.2 billion yuan, and 31.6 billion yuan respectively. Operating income has shown a downward trend from month to month, with month-on-month declines of 6%, 19%, and 15% respectively.

In addition, from the perspective of the sales of major products, in the first three months of this year, it is still rising month by month, but since April, sales have begun to turn down and show a monthly downward trend. According to the statistics of 24 key enterprises in the industry by the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, comparing the sales of three main products of excavators, loaders, and truck cranes in June with March in 2011, it can be found that there were only three months. The decline in sales of major products was all above 50%. Especially for excavators, the decline was as high as 77%. The sales volume of loaders was 39,989 units in March, 19,240 units in June, a decrease of 51%; the sales volume of truck cranes was 6,860 units in March and 2,718 units in June. Units, a decrease of 60%. Sales of excavators in March were 43,299 units, and in June it was 9,961 units, a decrease of 77%.

In April, the entire construction machinery industry saw a 30% decline, and both the output value and sales volume fell sharply. At that time, it attracted widespread industry attention, and relevant people in the industry put forward the “inflection point”. Looking back at the industry situation this year, April has indeed become the high point of the entire industry. Although the “inflection point theory” was not widely recognized at the time, from the current situation, the high point in April has become clearer and clearer. It may be maintained throughout the year.

Still ahead of the machinery industry

Although the growth rate of the construction machinery industry has dropped significantly compared with the same period last year, in the machinery industry, the construction machinery sub-industry still maintains a significantly leading development speed.

From January to February 2011, the finished products of national machinery industry enterprises increased by 24.33% over the same period of the previous year. In contrast, the construction machinery industry, as one of the 12 sub-sectors of the machinery industry, its year-on-year growth rate was much higher than the average level of the entire industry. It is more than twice the industry level, which is 56.45%. At the same time, it is far ahead of the growth rate of other machinery sub-sectors, such as the agricultural machinery industry (35.97%) and the automobile industry (34.52%), which are the second and third largest in growth. .

At the same time, this leading position has been maintained until now. From January to June 2011, the total industrial output value of the entire machinery industry was 7882.352 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.08%. In the same period, the national construction machinery industry completed a total industrial output value of 312.352 billion yuan, an increase of 43.04% year-on-year.

In addition, although the growth rate of the output value of the construction machinery industry has declined, the industry’s profit indicators have performed well in both the profit growth rate and the profit margin. According to data from the China Machinery Industry Federation, the profit of the machinery industry from January to February increased by 30.74% year-on-year, and the construction machinery industry was 75.60%. The data from the China Machinery Industry Federation also showed that despite the main business of the machinery industry from January to June 2011 The profit margin of revenue rose from 6.62% at the beginning of the year to 7.01%, but the profit margin of the construction machinery industry was 10.59%, which was 3.58 percentage points higher than that of the entire industry and ranked first in the entire machinery industry.

There is no shortage of bright spots in the industry

From the perspective of listed companies in the construction machinery industry, some companies’ operating income growth and profit margins are much higher than the industry level, and they should be regarded as bright spots in the construction machinery industry.

As of August 24, a total of 11 major construction machinery listed companies have issued interim reports, achieving a total operating income of 77.385 billion yuan, an increase of 54.51% year-on-year; a total net profit of 10.139 billion yuan, an increase of 72.58% from last year’s 5.875 billion yuan. The growth rate of its operating income is more than 10 percentage points higher than the average level of the construction machinery industry.

In particular, the performance of some leading listed companies in the industry in the first half of the year was very gratifying. The net profit of Sany Heavy Industry and Xugong Machinery in the first half of the year was 5.939 billion yuan and 2.229 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 106.57% and 61.70%; Zoomlion’s performance forecast revealed that it is expected to achieve a net profit of 4 billion to 4.6 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase 80%~110%; Liugong also stated that the sales revenue in the first half of the year was approximately 10.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30%.

In particular, the operating performance of Sany Heavy Industry in the first half of 2011 far exceeded expectations. In the first half of 2011, the company achieved operating income of 30.363 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 79.18%; net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.939 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 106.57%. As the main product of Sany Heavy Industry, the sales volume of Sany Heavy Industry continues to grow despite the drastic reduction of the entire industry. In the first half of the year, the company’s excavator sales revenue was 7.046 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 109.88%. As a result, its market share of excavators rose from fifth in the country to first in the country. At the same time, the profit margin of Sany Heavy Industry is much higher than the industry level. The mid-year report disclosed that the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin was 38.73% in the first half of the year. Under the circumstances of rising costs and increasingly fierce competition, Sany Heavy Industry can maintain such a high gross profit. Interest rates are really rare in the industry and the entire machinery industry. For the same industry, Shantui’s gross profit margin is only 14.34%.

In the second half of the year, the downward trend in sales of various products has not been reversed. Take the excavator as an example. From January to April 2011, the monthly sales volume of excavators increased year-on-year in positive numbers. The largest increase occurred in February. The number of units sold was 20,000, an increase of 136.7%. However, starting from May, mining The sales of excavators began to show negative growth, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.4%. This downward trend continued in June, with a year-on-year decrease of 14.6%. The latest data shows that the total sales of excavators in July was 7,665 units, which is still down 14.49% year-on-year. It is said that July and August of each year are the off-season for sales of construction machinery products, but the person concerned said that it is estimated that by September, the peak sales season, the rebound will not be much.