2010 Outlook for the Power Equipment Industry

Although there are some problems, overall2010Year pairelectric equipmentThe industry is still worth looking forward to. The power transmission and transformation industry is still the most prosperous sub-industry in the power equipment industry, especially in the high-end areas.

2010National Electricity(600795,Stock bar)Internet investment growth rate will likely be close20%, Especially the State Grid Corporation of China, its planned investment in power grid construction will reach3210Billion, more than2009year2600A substantial increase of RMB 100 million, of which we believe that the UHV grid will be an important investment direction. Take the State Grid Corporation of China as an example,2007,2008Annual UHV grid investment was onlytwenty threeYihe53100 million yuan, accounting for its investment quota only respectively1.1%with2.1%.2009Although some pre-construction work for new UHV projects was carried out in 2009, the substantive construction has not been started because it has not yet been approved.2009We estimate that the annual UHV investment amount should be2008Years are equivalent. However, with the maturity of technology and the improvement of power grid companies’ finances and equipment manufacturers’ production capacity, we believe that UHV construction is on the line.2010The year will begin to enter a real start and rise period. The most likely to start substantive construction should be the Huainan-Shanghai UHV AC line and the Sichuan Jinping-Suzhou UHV DC line. The corresponding equipment manufacturers will fully benefit.

As for other sub-sectors, we believe that the demand for power electronic devices is still relatively broad, such as dynamic reactive power compensation devices, the proportion of power grid investment will increase.In addition, what the market is concerned aboutSmart gridFrom a complete technical level, there will be no substantial improvement. It is just a re-division of the existing power grid functional levels and more integration of some communication, monitoring, protection, control and other functions into hardware equipment such as transformers. And switches, and related grid functions have also been adjusted accordingly. From an enterprise perspective, it is still advantageous manufacturers that benefit.

Although the main businesses of large power generation equipment companies have entered a phased adjustment period, their technical strength and status are still a strong guarantee of their value, and major companies have gained new growth momentum by exploring fields such as wind power and nuclear power. From a specific business perspective,2009Although the construction of thermal power plants slowed down in the year, there are still plenty of orders from major companies, enough to support normal operations in the next three years. With the gradual recovery of the domestic and global economy, it is still possible for China’s economy to resume rapid growth, and it is not entirely impossible for the installation of electricity to re-enter the fast lane.In addition, the nuclear power installation plan has changed from the original2020Annual installed capacity400010,000 kilowatts increased significantly to750010,000 kilowatts, the wind power installed capacity target is more likely to be2020Year reached1Billion to1.2Billion kilowatts. All of these provide new business growth opportunities for industry leaders.

As for the hydropower in the power generation business, although due to environmental protection and immigration issues2009The demand in 2015 has declined, but we believe that in the long run, hydropower still needs to maintain a certain development scale every year to ensure the coordinated development of the domestic power installation structure. Therefore, there is still room for the future development of hydropower equipment manufacturers.

Regarding new energy industries such as photovoltaics and wind power, we have always maintained a cautious view. The main reason is that despite strong demand, the increasingly obvious problem of overcapacity is difficult to solve in the short term, and industry reshuffle is inevitable. Only leading companies have investment value.

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